• Explainer
  • E-commerce
  • 5 min read

Foresight, Explained: True Profit, the Season Coming, Pace to Goal, and Forecasts Scored Daily

A forecast that publishes its own error is the only kind worth reading.

Author
ftes.ai Editorial
ftes.ai Team

The short answer

Foresight in the commerce engine is the forward-looking surface: true profit after every deduction, the season that is coming, pace to goal, size intelligence, stockout predictions and new-drop winners. Every forecast it shows is scored against reality daily, so the owner can see how accurate yesterday's prediction was before trusting today's.

The role this piece is aboutDemand Forecaster FTE · Demand Forecaster

Key takeaways

  • True profit here is the fully-loaded figure, after discount, returns and dated landed cost.
  • Pace to goal compares the current rate of sale to the target the owner set and says when the gap will close or not.
  • Stockout predictions and new-drop winners are ranked by money, like every other list.
  • Every forecast is scored daily against what happened, and the score is shown next to the forecast.
  • The Demand Forecaster FTE on ftes.ai is the role that owns this surface.

What does Foresight show?

True profit after every deduction for the period so far and at the current pace. The season that is coming, with the lines that carried it last time and their current cover. Pace to goal against the target the owner set. Size intelligence: which sizes sell through and which sit, per style. Stockout predictions: which variants run out before they can be replenished. New-drop winners: which lines in a recent launch are pulling ahead.

Each is computed by the analytics engine from the store's own history and current stock, then narrated by the AI. The figures are the backend's; the reading is the AI's; the decision is the owner's.

  • True profit after every deduction, for the period so far and at the current pace.
  • The season that is coming, with last time's lines and their current cover.
  • Pace to goal against the target the owner set, with the date the gap closes or the note that it will not.
  • Size intelligence per style, stockout predictions per variant, and new-drop winners per launch.

Every forecast is scored against reality

A stockout prediction made on Monday is checked on Tuesday, Wednesday and every day after against what actually sold. A pace-to-goal projection is compared to the sales that arrived. The score sits next to the forecast, so an owner reading today's prediction can see how last week's held up.

This is the difference between a forecast and a guess. The commerce engine publishes its own error, whether or not the news is good, because a forecast that never reports its misses cannot be trusted with a buy.

What is pace to goal?

The owner sets a target for the period: net sales, true profit or units for a category or the whole store. Foresight compares the rate of sale so far to the rate needed, and says whether the gap closes at the current pace or not, and by when. It shows the arithmetic, so a target that is out of reach is visible early rather than at month end.

The projection uses the current rate of sale and says so. It does not assume a promotion the owner has not run or a season that has not started; those are shown as separate what-ifs the owner can read, never mixed into the base figure.

What are size intelligence and new-drop winners?

Size intelligence shows, per style, which sizes sell through and which sit, from the store's own sales and the returns platform's exchanges where connected. It is the input the Fit Officer FTE reads, and it is where a broken size curve on a reorder becomes visible before the order is placed.

New-drop winners rank the lines in a recent launch by the money they are earning against their stock, so a buyer knows within the first week which pieces to chase and which to leave. Both lists are ranked by money, and both carry their coverage notes.

What Foresight does not claim

It does not know a demand calendar for the brand's own peaks yet; a calendar that learns when this business's seasons actually fall, from festivals, school terms and local weather, is on the roadmap, and Foresight says so rather than pretending. It does not produce a forecast for a line without enough history; it says the history is too short.

And it does not act. A stockout prediction becomes a reorder proposal in the inventory analyst, through Review & Send, with a person signing.

Which role owns Foresight on ftes.ai?

The Demand Forecaster FTE owns the forecasts and is judged on their accuracy, which is why the daily scoring matters: it is the role's own scorecard. The Buyer FTE reads stockout predictions and new-drop winners for the buy; the Fit Officer FTE reads size intelligence.

A brand that connects the store gets Foresight's first views from its own history immediately, with the scoring starting the next day. Read the scores for two weeks before trusting a projection with a large order; that is what the scores are for.

Frequently asked questions

How is a forecast scored?

Every day, against what actually happened, and the score is shown next to the forecast.

What is pace to goal?

The current rate of sale compared to the rate needed to hit the target you set, with the date the gap closes or the note that it will not.

Does Foresight know my seasonal peaks?

It uses the store's own history. A demand calendar that learns the brand's own peaks is on the roadmap and is labelled as such.

Can Foresight place a reorder?

No. A stockout prediction becomes a proposal in the inventory analyst that a person signs.

Which role owns it?

The Demand Forecaster FTE on ftes.ai, judged on forecast accuracy.

  • E-commerce
  • Commerce engine
  • Demand Forecaster FTE
  • Digital FTE
Further reading

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